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Goodhart's Law: When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure

en.wikipedia.org Reference Encyclopedia entries Economics & business Class of 2021-09 Hall of Fame
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Resurfaced independently across 10 calendar years, with breakout response in 2 of them.

submissions
19
submitters
18
observed span
2010–2026
peak thread · 134 comments
229 pts
latest 20+ return · 2021-09-17
178 pts

Submission timeline

2007–2026

One slot for every year since HN launched. Height is that year's peak points; orange marks a 100+ point or 50+ comment breakout. Select a bar to open its strongest thread.

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This is probably where I should mention my two longer articles that discuss this in depth; https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2016/06/09/goodharts-law-and-why-... https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2016/09/29/soft-bias-of-underspec... As well as my more recent paper categorizing the different ways it occurs; https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.04585

A closely-related effect I often cite is the McNamara fallacy[0], which is essentially about the tendency to focus on aspects of a system that are easily measurable, often at the expense of aspects that are not. I see it as one of the weaknesses of the data-driven decision-making movement, since many interpret "data" to mean "numbers". I think this fallacy can partly explain why Goodhart's Law holds: it's the non-measurable (or difficult-to-measure) aspects that suffer most when a metric becomes…

Goodhart’s law: “Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.” And Marilyn Strathern’s generalization of it: “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.” What are some examples of Goodhart’s Law that you see in the world?

It reminds me of that old saw falsely attributed to W E Deming, "If you can't measure it, you can't manage it". I often see it come up on twitter, usually quoted by people whose... managerial ambitions I would prefer thwarted for the greater good :P On the contrary Deming himself was very aware of this effect, and explicitly cautioned against running a company on just the numbers.

nvader·2-point thread·

The first top-level comment from each of the four biggest threads, in HN’s own order. Excerpts are shortened; open a comment for full context.

Breakout years
2

100+ points or 50+ comments

Total points
438

reference only — not used in Hall rules or ranking

Total comments
221

reference only — not used in Hall rules or ranking

Every submission

DateTitle as submittedByPointsComments
2010-05-21Goodhart's lawmichael_nielsen21
2014-09-29Goodhart's Lawdedalus10
2015-07-26Goodhart's lawfasteo10
2015-08-17Goodhart's Lawasimjalis21
2018-06-15Goodhart's Law: When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measureFirst breakout · Best threadchrisshroba229134
2019-12-12Goodhart's Lawmgh210
2020-02-26Goodhart's Lawthrowaway315710
2020-04-24Goodhart's Lawmarcopolis10
2021-03-30Goodhart's Lawbluu0020
2021-04-16Goodhart's Lawcwwc32
2021-06-09Goodhart's Lawmgh240
2021-09-17Goodhart's LawHall induction · Latest 20+ point returnrfreytag17883
2023-08-17Goodhart's Lawjonbaer10
2023-09-07Goodhart's Lawherbertl20
2023-09-11When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measurealphadelphi10
2025-03-26Goodhart's Lawhaikuya30
2025-06-14Goodhart's Lawwslh20
2025-10-02Goodhart's Lawdoener20
2026-02-02Goodhart's Law: When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measureinsuranceguru20