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A Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code (2018)

www.bloomberg.com Essays & writing News reports Economics & business Class of 2024-12 Hall of Fame

Resurfaced independently across 5 calendar years, with breakout response in 4 of them.

submissions
6
submitters
6
observed span
2018–2024
peak thread · 225 comments
360 pts
latest 20+ return · 2024-12-26
178 pts

Submission timeline

2007–2026

One slot for every year since HN launched. Height is that year's peak points; orange marks a 100+ point or 50+ comment breakout. Select a bar to open its strongest thread.

First comments on top threads

HN comment order

Is there a service that provides summaries of long-form articles like this? I get that some people enjoy reading prose, but I'd like to know what the article is actually about. So far, I'm 5 pages in and still not sure what the insight is. I really don't care about the decoration of this guy's office, which drugs he prefers, how his voice sounds, the atmosphere in a horse racing venue, the outcome of a specific horse race, not even…

Bill Benter did the impossible: He wrote an algorithm that couldn’t lose at the track. Close to a billion dollars later, he tells his story for the first time. No, he told this story decades ago, and published papers detailing his algorithms, e.g. Benter, W. (1994).“Computer Based Horserace Handicapping and Wagering Systems: A Report.” In L. Hausch and Ziemba (eds.), Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets. San Diego, CA: Academic Press, pp. 183–198. Benter, W. (2003). “Advances in the Mathematical Modeling…

The insight about starting from the public odds is so important. It's like running from a polar bear: you don't have to outrun the bear, only your buddy. Not counting the track take, any deviation from the public odds in the correct direction makes you money. (And the public is often reliably biased -- this is why they say sports betting is more about betting on gamblers than on games.) A smaller deviation makes you less money that one time…

kqr·187-point thread·

British magician Darren Brown aired a TV special called "The System" revealing a foolproof method which allowed him to provide the name of the winning horse to a lucky person who randomly responded to his newspaper advertisement in time for that person to bet on the race and win. He continued doing this with that person for six more races over six consecutive weeks - with that person betting their own money and winning each time, beating astronomical odds and…

The first top-level comment from each of the four biggest threads, in HN’s own order. Excerpts are shortened; open a comment for full context.

Breakout years
4

100+ points or 50+ comments

Total points
952

reference only — not used in Hall rules or ranking

Total comments
418

reference only — not used in Hall rules or ranking

Every submission

DateTitle as submittedByPointsComments
2018-05-03A Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing CodeFirst breakoutbungie422340
2019-08-26The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Codezt30
2019-09-03A Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code (2018)Best threadtosh360225
2021-04-30A Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code (2018)mrbbk18750
2023-06-28The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code (2018)max_10
2024-12-26The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code (2018)Hall induction · Latest 20+ point returnsebg178103